Euro (EUR/USD) Forecast – All Eyes on the Fed and ECB Next Week

• EUR/USD slides back towards 1.1100.
• Fed blackout period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting.

The US dollar has perked up this week and currently trades around 150 pips higher than this week’s 99.50 low print. Recent US economic data has been marginally better than expected, while the US dollar index has been boosted by a bout of weakness in a range of basket currencies. With no Federal Reserve speakers scheduled until after next Wednesday’s FOMC policy decision, the US dollar may consolidate this week’s gains ahead of the Fed’s decision.

EUR/USD DAILY PRICE CHART – JULY 21, 2023

Chart via TradingView

EUR/USD BEARISH

Data provided by

68% of clients are net short.

CHANGE IN	LONGS	SHORTS	OI
DAILY	21%	-14%	-5%
WEEKLY	36%	-8%	3%

RETAIL TRADERS REMAIN SHORT BUT ARE NET-BUYERS OF EUR/USD

Retail trader data shows 33.36% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.00 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 24.45% higher than yesterday and 32.35% higher than last week, while the number of traders net-short is 18.43% lower than yesterday and 10.29% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current EUR/USD price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net short.