Oil Price Forecast: 100-Day MA Provides Support to WTI but Will it Last?

WTI OIL PRICE, CHARTS AND ANALYSIS:

• WTI Struggling to Hold the High Ground Thanks in Part to a Resurgent US Dollar.
• Middle East Conflict to Remain a Critical Driver as it Continues to Underpin Oil Prices.
• EIA Inventories Rose Once More According to the Data.

Crude Oil has bounced higher today of the 100-day MA as bears take a pause ahead of a raft of high-impact data events and releases. An aggressive bounce leaves the possibility of a bullish engulfing candle close today which would hint at a deeper recovery.

EIA INVENTORY DATA AND FED MEETING

Oil prices had been up around 2% for the day ahead of the EIA inventories data which showed that stockpiles rose last week. This isn’t a surprise really given that following the summer period US refineries often begin maintenance which curtails production somewhat, however, this hasn’t been as steep a drop-off in production as expected. Crude rose by about 62k barrels a day last week according to the EIA data.

Last week we heard comments from US authorities about replenishing the SPR which remains at 1980 levels at present. Today the EIA confirmed that the SPR remains unchanged at 351.27 million barrels. The target price based on comments by US authorities will be around $79 a barrel or less. We came quite close today and it will no doubt be interesting when the US pulls the trigger. Authorities have confirmed that they would like this to happen ahead of January 2024.

RISK EVENTS FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

The FOMC meeting remains key today, particularly for the US Dollar and that could spread to the dollar-denominated Oil price. Friday will also bring Jobs data from the US with analysts expecting positive data.

For all market-moving economic releases and events

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The daily timeframe has seen WTI find support at the 100-day MA around the 81.41 mark before bouncing aggressively in the early part of the European session. However, we have since retreated quite significantly, shedding over 1% of recent gains.

The question of whether the Bulls are truly back remains as pressure continues to grow.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart – November 1, 2023

Key Levels to Keep an Eye Out For

Resistance levels:

• $82.92
• $83.80
• $85.00

Key support levels:

• $81.41
• $80.00
• $78.15

Oil – US CrudeMIXED

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CHANGE IN	LONGS	SHORTS	OI
DAILY	-5%	5%	-3%
WEEKLY	8%	0%	6%